The primary season has been kickstarted with both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary having been completed though there is still a lot of confusion about the Iowa Results. On Saturday, Nevadan Democrats will be the first in the nation to cast their vote for a race that isn’t in a predominately caucasian state.
This is an extremely important race for Joe Biden as he has plummeted in the polls after finishing fourth in the Iowa Caucus and fifth in the New Hampshire primary. Joe Biden is doing well with older African American voters likely due to his vice presidency under Barack Obama. African Americans almost always vote Democrat and make up a significant portion of the Democratic electorate. However, Iowa and New Hampshire are not good representations of how a candidate is doing with African American voters. This can be seen with Pete Buttigieg who got second place in both Iowa and New Hampshire with over 25 percent of the vote in each but is polling in single digits with African Americans.
His momentum depends solely on how well he does in Nevada and South Carolina. The recent Data for Progress poll is concerning for Biden as he is polling fourth place behind Buttigieg, Warren, and Sanders. These two states are truly the only way that Biden will be able to outshine other centrist candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar who are unpopular with African Americans.
Biden’s main challenge is Sanders as he has a 14% lead over Biden based on the average numbers of the last two Nevada polls. Sanders is also leading in polls on African American support. If Biden can pull through Nevada and South Carolina, it could save his crumbling campaign.
Biden still has a narrow lead in South Carolina polls. If he doesn’t do well in Nevada, it could hurt his support in South Carolina where his supporters may switch to a more viable candidate when it is time to vote.
What is clear is that the next two races in the Democratic Primaries are integral to how well Biden will do in the Democratic National Convention